In the 18th century, the British minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes devised a theorem that allowed him to assign probabilities to events that had never happened before. It languished in obscurity for centuries until computers came along and made it easy to crunch the numbers. Now, as the foundation of big data, Bayes' formula has become a linchpin of the digital economy.

But here's where things get really interesting: Bayes' theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence; on whether we live in a Matrix-like counterfeit of reality; on the "many worlds" interpretation of quantum theory being correct; and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive?

The Doomsday Calculation tells how Silicon Valley's profitable formula became a controversial pivot of contemporary thought. Drawing on interviews with thought leaders around the globe, it's the story of a group of intellectual mavericks who are challenging what we thought we knew about our place in the universe. The Doomsday Calculation is compelling reading for anyone interested in our culture and its future.

ST - The doomsday calculation SN - 9780316440707 ER - TY - rp#eBook, ax#eBook, 4y155#Book, 88115#Book, 4l545#Book, 6f615#eBook, bld#eBook, wpd#eAudiobook, blj#Book, 63290#Book, 77655#eAudiobook, 74562#eAudiobook, 44130#Book, 60110#Book, oh#Book, 40100#Book, 88115#eAudiobook, oh#eAudiobook, 72211#Book, ma#eAudiobook, hp#eBook, ct#eAudiobook, 7g457#Book, 4t675#Book, 87007#eBook, ea#eBook, wp#Book, 72211#eAudiobook, 4e410#Book, gh#eBook, 66435#eAudiobook, no#eBook, 4j535#Book, hm#Book, 6a452#Book, 68448#eBook, oh#eBook, 6g632#eBook, 6c497#Book, ar#eBook, 88115#eBook, 4v770#Book, 67440#eAudiobook, 41111#Book, sc#eBook, 4p577#Book, child#eBook, 6g632#Book, 7z999#eBook, 4i510#Book, 4s612#Book, gh#eAudiobook, eh#eAudiobook, 48275#Book, 73422#eAudiobook, 4u730#Book, 47270#Book, 6d532#eBook, 67440#eBook, 60110#eBook, mad#eAudiobook, sed#eBook, 6i787#eAudiobook, epj#Book, mad#Book, 66435#Book, bld#Book, 69450#eAudiobook, 46260#Book, 7a504#eBook, lo#Book, tl#Book, epd#eAudiobook, pr#eAudiobook, 77655#eBook, 70142#Book, 4w783#Book, eh#Book, 6g632#eAudiobook, hmj#Book, 4h498#Book, ma#eBook, mn#eBook, bl#eAudiobook, wpd#eBook, child#eAudiobook, vi#eBook, rp#eAudiobook, 64325#Book, 6e550#eAudiobook, 62242#Book, 6a452#eAudiobook, 6a452#eBook, 6d532#eAudiobook, mad2#Book, 60110#eAudiobook, 6d532#Book, 6f615#Book, hp#eAudiobook, 77655#Book, 64325#eAudiobook, 7a504#eAudiobook, 6j445#Book, ct#Book, 78508#eAudiobook, 6i787#Book, 71181#Book, mnj#Book, 7f748#eAudiobook, 63290#eAudiobook, 73422#Book, 72211#eBook, 4g470#Book, ep#eBook, no#Book, school#eBook, wpd#Book, 1z451#Book, ea#Book, go#eAudiobook, tl#eAudiobook, catalog#Book, ma#Book, bx#eBook, school#Book, 4b355#Book, bxd#eAudiobook, wp#eBook, prof#eAudiobook, sed#eAudiobook, 67440#Book, hp#Book, 69450#Book, se#eBook, hm#eBook, 7i305#Book, maj#Book, 49285#Book, bld#eAudiobook, prof#eBook, 68448#Book, 6c497#eAudiobook, 87007#eAudiobook, 4o563#Book, 4d400#Book, 65397#eAudiobook, 61182#Book, sed#Book, sc#Book, mad#eBook, 64325#eBook, 6i787#eBook, 70142#eBook, 74562#Book, go#eBook, se#Book, 74562#eBook, wp#eAudiobook, se#eAudiobook, gh#Book, bxd#Book, catalog#eAudiobook, 4k540#Book, 7g457#eAudiobook, pr#eBook, mad2#eAudiobook, mn#Book, do#Book, 63290#eBook, 69450#eBook, 6h705#eAudiobook, 6h705#eBook, 76613#Book, 61182#eAudiobook, 7f748#Book, epd#Book, 6j445#eBook, child#Book, 4m551#Book, 4f434#Book, bx#eAudiobook, 78508#eBook, ax#eAudiobook, vi#Book, mad2#eBook, hi#Book, 65397#eBook, 62242#eBook, sc#eAudiobook, 66435#eBook, ct#eBook, 78508#Book, 7z999#eAudiobook, in#Book, hi#eAudiobook, vi#eAudiobook, rp#Book, no#eAudiobook, in#eBook, 6j445#eAudiobook, 4a296#Book, pr#Book, ghj#Book, 7f748#eBook, 70142#eAudiobook, 6e550#Book, tl#eBook, 75585#Book, 6e550#eBook, 4x805#Book, hi#eBook, 6c497#eBook, ar#eAudiobook, 73422#eBook, do#eBook, bl#eBook, eh#eBook, 76613#eAudiobook, ar#Book, ea#eAudiobook, 43120#Book, 6f615#eAudiobook, hm#eAudiobook, 65397#Book, lo#eBook, bl#Book, ax#Book, 87007#Book, go#Book, epd#eBook, ep#Book, lo#eAudiobook, 7g457#eBook, bx#Book, 62242#eAudiobook, 4n555#Book, ep#eAudiobook, 76613#eBook, bxd#eBook, do#eAudiobook, mn#eAudiobook, 6h705#Book, in#eAudiobook, 45238#Book, 61182#eBook, school#eAudiobook, catalog#eBook, 68448#eAudiobook AU - Silver, Nate AU - Chamberlain, Mike|Narrator AU - Silver, Nate|Author TI - The signal and the noise: why so many predictions fail-- but some don't PB - Books on Tape, Penguin Publishing Group, Penguin Books, Penguin Press PY - 2015 PY - 2012 CY - New York ET - Unabridged N2 - NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER * The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation's foremost political forecaster

One of The Wall Street Journal 's Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year

"Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade."-- The New York Times Book Review

Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise , Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He discovers that what the most accurate ones have in common is a superior command of probability--as well as a healthy dose of humility.

With everything from the global economy to the fight against disease hanging on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver's insights are an essential read. ST - The signal and the noise SN - 9781594204111 ER - TY - rp#eBook, ax#eBook, bx#eBook, 6f615#eBook, wp#eBook, bld#eBook, 44130#eBook, se#eBook, hm#eBook, 4m551#eBook, prof#eBook, 4k540#eBook, 75585#eBook, ghj#eBook, 4e410#eBook, hp#eBook, 41111#eBook, mad#eBook, 4s612#eBook, 4j535#eBook, 64325#eBook, 6i787#eBook, ea#eBook, 70142#eBook, gh#eBook, 43120#eBook, go#eBook, 74562#eBook, no#eBook, 68448#eBook, oh#eBook, 6g632#eBook, ar#eBook, 47270#eBook, pr#eBook, 48275#eBook, 63290#eBook, 69450#eBook, 6h705#eBook, child#eBook, 6j445#eBook, 4b355#eBook, mnj#eBook, 78508#eBook, 71181#eBook, 7i305#eBook, 7b507#eBook, 4g470#eBook, 4l545#eBook, 4p577#eBook, 6d532#eBook, mad2#eBook, 7d744#eBook, 45238#eBook, 67440#eBook, 60110#eBook, 65397#eBook, 4v770#eBook, 62242#eBook, sed#eBook, 66435#eBook, 4h498#eBook, ct#eBook, hmj#eBook, 7a504#eBook, in#eBook, 4y155#eBook, 4f434#eBook, 77655#eBook, 7f748#eBook, tl#eBook, maj#eBook, 49285#eBook, 46260#eBook, 6e550#eBook, ma#eBook, mn#eBook, wpd#eBook, hi#eBook, 6c497#eBook, 4o563#eBook, vi#eBook, 4x805#eBook, 4i510#eBook, 73422#eBook, 6a452#eBook, do#eBook, bl#eBook, eh#eBook, epj#eBook, 7c743#eBook, lo#eBook, 4n555#eBook, epd#eBook, 4t675#eBook, 1b225#eBook, 7g457#eBook, blj#eBook, 72211#eBook, 7e601#eBook, 4w783#eBook, 76613#eBook, 4a296#eBook, bxd#eBook, ep#eBook, 4u730#eBook, 4d400#eBook, 61182#eBook, 40100#eBook, catalog#eBook AU - United States.Consumer Financial Protection Bureau|issuing body TI - Using publicly available information to proxy for unidentified race and ethnicity: a methodology and assessment PB - Consumer Financial Protection Bureau PY - 2014 CY - [Washington, D.C.] N2 - Description Not Provided ST - Using publicly available information to proxy for unidentified race and ethnicity ER - TY - catalog#Book, rp#eBook, ma#Book, ax#eBook, 4y155#Book, 88115#Book, bx#eBook, school#Book, 4b355#Book, 4l545#Book, 6f615#eBook, wp#eBook, bld#eBook, blj#Book, 63290#Book, 67440#Book, hp#Book, 69450#Book, se#eBook, hm#eBook, 7i305#Book, maj#Book, 49285#Book, 44130#Book, 60110#Book, prof#eBook, 68448#Book, oh#Book, 4o563#Book, 4d400#Book, 40100#Book, 72211#Book, hp#eBook, 61182#Book, sed#Book, sc#Book, mad#eBook, 7g457#Book, 4t675#Book, 87007#eBook, 64325#eBook, 6i787#eBook, ea#eBook, 70142#eBook, wp#Book, 74562#Book, 4e410#Book, gh#eBook, go#eBook, se#Book, 74562#eBook, gh#Book, bxd#Book, 4k540#Book, no#eBook, 4j535#Book, hm#Book, 6a452#Book, 68448#eBook, oh#eBook, 6g632#eBook, 6c497#Book, ar#eBook, 88115#eBook, 4v770#Book, pr#eBook, 41111#Book, mn#Book, sc#eBook, 4p577#Book, do#Book, 63290#eBook, 69450#eBook, 6h705#eBook, 76613#Book, child#eBook, 6g632#Book, 7z999#eBook, 4i510#Book, 4s612#Book, 7f748#Book, epd#Book, 6j445#eBook, child#Book, 48275#Book, 4m551#Book, 4f434#Book, 78508#eBook, 4u730#Book, vi#Book, 47270#Book, 6d532#eBook, mad2#eBook, 67440#eBook, 60110#eBook, hi#Book, 65397#eBook, 62242#eBook, sed#eBook, 66435#eBook, epj#Book, mad#Book, ct#eBook, 66435#Book, 78508#Book, in#Book, bld#Book, 46260#Book, rp#Book, 7a504#eBook, lo#Book, tl#Book, in#eBook, 4a296#Book, pr#Book, 77655#eBook, ghj#Book, 7f748#eBook, 70142#Book, 6e550#Book, 4w783#Book, tl#eBook, 75585#Book, eh#Book, hmj#Book, 6e550#eBook, 4h498#Book, ma#eBook, mn#eBook, 4x805#Book, wpd#eBook, hi#eBook, 6c497#eBook, vi#eBook, 64325#Book, 62242#Book, 73422#eBook, 6a452#eBook, do#eBook, bl#eBook, eh#eBook, mad2#Book, ar#Book, 43120#Book, 6d532#Book, 6f615#Book, 77655#Book, 65397#Book, lo#eBook, bl#Book, 6j445#Book, ax#Book, 87007#Book, ct#Book, go#Book, 6i787#Book, 71181#Book, epd#eBook, mnj#Book, ep#Book, 7g457#eBook, bx#Book, 73422#Book, 72211#eBook, 4n555#Book, 76613#eBook, 4g470#Book, bxd#eBook, ep#eBook, no#Book, school#eBook, 6h705#Book, wpd#Book, 1z451#Book, ea#Book, 45238#Book, 61182#eBook, catalog#eBook AU - Chivers, Tom AU - Chivers, Tom|Author TI - Everything is predictable: how Bayesian statistics explain our world PB - Atria/One Signal Publishers, One Signal Publishers/Atria Books PY - 2024 CY - New York ET - First One Signal Publishers/Atria Books hardcover edition. N2 - "Bayes's moment has clearly arrived." -- The Wall Street Journal

A captivating and user-friendly tour of Bayes's theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of The Rationalist's Guide to the Galaxy .

At its simplest, Bayes's theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes's theorem is a description of almost everything.

But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?

Fusing biography, razor-sharp science writing, and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining tour of Bayes's theorem and its impact on modern life, showing how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences. ST - Everything is predictable SN - 9781668052600 ER -